Shandon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

399
FXUS66 KLOX 111726
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
926 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...11/902 AM.

Still some gusty northeast winds across parts of Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties but wind speeds are considerably lower than
yesterday. Otherwise, lots of high clouds today with near normal
temperatures. Rain chances will develop Thursday morning along the
Central Coast and in the afternoon south. Amounts will be very
light. Another chance of rain is expected Saturday with slightly
higher amounts than Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...11/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore gradients remain relatively strong this morning but with
a notable absence of strong winds aloft and minimal cold advection
all the support for the stronger winds has ended. Still seeing
some gusts into the 40s across the Santa Susanas and Porter Ranch
areas but near the fire winds are at a much more manageable 15-25
mph. Humidities in all areas remain quite low and with still some
lingering gust winds the red flag warnings will remain in place at
least through 2pm. At that point the offshore flow will be much
weaker as the usual onshore flow makes more inroads towards the
interior. So there`s a chance all the remaining advisories and
warnings will be finished by 2 pm.

A weakening upper low will mostly pass north and east of the area
Thursday. A rapidly decaying frontal boundary will drop some light
rain across northern areas and possibly some drizzle or very light
rain south. Amounts expected to be a quarter inch or so across
northern SLO County and a tenth or less south. And many areas
south of Santa Barbara will receive little to no rain.
Temperatures will be 3-6 degrees cooler than today.

Following the frontal passage a strong west wind will develop
through the Santa Barbara Channel and outer coastal waters
bringing some gusty west to northwest winds to the coastal areas
south of Pt Conception and the Santa Ynez range during the
afternoon and evening.

A little warmer Friday under a quick little pop up ridge in
between low pressure systems.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...11/331 AM.

The next storm system will impact the region on Saturday, and has
the potential to be slightly wetter than the previous system.
There is a better chance of Downtown LA receiving measurable
precipitation with this storm, however totals still appear on the
light side. Around a 0.25-0.5 inches are most likely for the low
levels of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Up to around
a quarter of an inch is possible for Ventura and LA Counties,
though under a tenth of an inch is the most likely scenario.

Chances for rain will return again on Monday with another weak
system. At this point, light rain is only favored for San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Through the long term period,
temperatures are expected to be temperate, mostly in the 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1123Z.

At around 11Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an
inversion.

High confidence 12Z TAF package. VFR conds expected at all sites
except for a 30% chance for low clouds with IFR- LIFR conditions
after 04Z for KSMX and KSBP. Maximum wind gusts at KOXR, KCMA, and
KVNY may be off by 5 kts through 20Z. There is a chance for light
LLWS and turbulence over high terrain through 20Z Wed.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF. High confidence in VFR conds.
There is a 30% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt
through 18Z, with best chances through 15Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...11/302 AM.

Local SCA level NE wind gusts are possible nearshore from Oxnard
to Santa Monica into Wednesday morning.

NW winds will start to pick up to around the Channel Islands
Wednesday evening with a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds developing and becoming widespread enough to warrant a SCA
after midnight. By Thursday morning, SCA level winds are expected
(60-80% chance) to become widespread across all waters, including
the inner waters. Seas will also increase Thursday morning to SCA
levels in the northern Outer Waters. From Thursday afternoon
until midnight, there is a 20% chance of low end GALES near the
Channel Islands, including the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel.

A brief lull in SCA winds and seas is expected late Thursday into
Friday before a return of steep seas in the Outer Waters and
widespread SCA winds Saturday through the weekend. There is a
40-50% chance of GALES during this period in the Outer Waters and
Inner Waters off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...11/158 AM.

High astronomical tides approaching 7 feet during the early
morning hours combined with elevated surf conditions from a
westerly swell will bring a chance of minor to possibly moderate
coastal flooding to southwest California shores as early as
Thursday, but higher confidence in possible coastal flooding
beginning Friday and continuing through through Monday. Normally
dry beach walkways and parking lots may see tidal overflows and
minor coastal flooding. There is a chance that beach erosion may
occur. Rip current activity may increase during the run up to high
tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...11/925 AM.

Santa Ana winds will continue to weaken today and should
end by later this evening. Gusts between 20 and 30 mph will be
common in the wind prone areas into the afternoon however, with
isolated gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the typically windiest
locations. Meanwhile, extreme low humidities will be more
widespread than yesterday, with minimumunder 10 percent common.
The Red Flag Warnings will remain in place today, with no threats
of extending. PDS warnings are no longer in effect.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST today for zone
      375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
      zones 288-358-369>372-374>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 354-355-362. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 9 PM PST Thursday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST
      Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Hall/Lewis
FIRE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox